An Era of Disappointment: How unmet expectations can drive us forward

Why optimism bias might be less helpful than the political discontent that comes from disappointment

Rather than passively relying on hope, disappointment compels us to confront reality. We see reason for disappointment everywhere, from the climate emergency creating a sense of a lost future, a disillusionment with elected politicians delivering on their promises to a brand rowing back on their ESG commitments.

Its pervasiveness suggests we are living through an ‘Era of Disappointment’, with multiple, overlapping forms of letdown. Popular culture reflects this lived experience from ballads lamenting lost love ("The winner takes it all, the loser standing small") to game-shows that zoom in on losing contestants' faces, disappointment is a deeply ingrained human experience.

Not only do we have to deal with our own disappointments, but we also have to navigate the weight of others' disappointments in us, whether as individuals, professionals, or as collective entities like brands or governments. It is such a central facet of our lives that the way we respond to this has the potential to shape our relationships and reputations, influencing whether others' disappointment in us hangs about, or transforms into something more positive.

It could be tempting to consider disappointment solely an emotional reaction, but it is also a cognitive, social, and, as we shall see, political process that shapes how we think about and engage with the world. The substantive nature of disappointment perhaps explains why it is such a critical part of our lives.

We will explore why disappointment is so psychologically disruptive and why some of us can process it better than others. But at the heart of this is the notion that disappointment can force us to think, allowing us, or indeed forcing us to consider a different way to approach a challenge. In this way it can have an important role in change, both individually and societally.

And if the ‘Era of Disappointment’ we are experiencing is to be a force for change rather than one of blame and disillusionment, then exploring the psychology of this is an important topic for behavioural science to explore.

Defining disappointment

There is plenty of evidence that disappointment is a frequently experienced emotion. Ulrich Schimmack and Ed Diener's study on the intensity and frequency of affective experiences found that disappointment is the third most frequently experienced negative emotion (after anxiety and anger). Despite its prevalence, disappointment has not been widely studied in the academic literature, although there does seem to be an unusual level of understanding and agreement on what disappointment is, stemming from outcomes that are worse than expected.

Its importance and impact on behaviour has been covered in decision research known as Disappointment Theory. More recent research in marketing has shown that disappointment influences dissatisfaction and encourages related behaviours such as complaining.

Disappointment research also makes a distinction between outcome-related disappointment (ORD) and person-related disappointment (PRD). ORD arises when an expected outcome is not achieved—such as failing an exam or missing out on an opportunity. PRD, on the other hand, occurs when another person’s actions fall short of expectations—such as a friend breaking a promise or a colleague spreading rumours.

Michael Hviid Jacobsen in his book ‘Dark Emotions’ suggests that people experiencing ORD often reflect on lost opportunities, express a desire for a second chance, and may feel motivated to try harder or engage in activities that lift their spirits. Those experiencing PRD, by contrast, often seek to distance themselves, ignore, or avoid the individual who caused their disappointment. They may feel a strong urge to be far removed from the person altogether. Either way, there is arguably an action tendency related to each type of disappointment.

There seems to be much more coverage about disappointment in the media; one example is ‘Paris Syndrome’, referring to a very specific type of disappointment allegedly suffered by holidaymakers when visiting the French capital for the first time and feeling 'extremely' disappointed that the city did not live up to their prior expectations.

Another media topic relates to the way we respond to disappointment, examining the reaction of English football players at the Euro 2020 final. After losing to Italy in a penalty shootout, many players immediately removed their silver medals during the trophy ceremony. This act visibly expressed their disappointment, implying that only winning the final would have been acceptable. While some fans and pundits empathised with their frustration, others saw it as disrespectful or indicative of a sense of entitlement.

Across all this, it is clear that we are disappointment-averse, (unsurprisingly) prefering to be satisfied and to have our desires fulfilled. No wonder then that the topic of optimism garners more publicity than disappointment!

The optimism bias

Psychologist Tali Sharot's neuroscience research on optimism shows how we selectively update beliefs in response to desirable information while discounting undesirable news. And that people are more likely to take action when given positive expectations of the future rather than warnings of disappointment or failure. Sharot suggests that framing communication in a way that harnesses optimism may be more effective in changing behavior than warning about possible disappointments.

But while there is little doubt that a hopeful and positive outlook is often adaptive, does this really hold up when we examine the collective responses to major societal challenges?

For example, when a major report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change stated that we are unlikely to contain global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial temperatures, many scientists and journalists nonetheless still presented the 1.5-degree goal as achievable. This is despite most scientists believing that warming will reach at least 2.5 degrees Celsius, according to a survey by The Guardian newspaper. It seems that while staying optimistic may be helpful in some instances, it can also be problematic, leading to a misdirection of much-needed efforts in others.

Philosopher Lauren Berlant wrote about the way people cling to hopeful narratives in the face of adversity in the aptly named book Cruel Optimism. It explores how we can individually and collectively get trapped by maintaining optimistic illusions even when they lead to disappointment and suffering. This feels similar to the Just-World Hypothesis, where people believe that the world is fundamentally fair and that individuals get what they deserve: good things happen to good people, but also that bad things happen to bad people. Or stock-market bubbles, where a collective optimism that over-priced assets will continue to rise has given rise to many financial crashes.

Indeed, there is also experimental evidence that our optimistic belief in a better future is not necessarily helpful and can even prevent real structural change. In a study from 2011, college students who were instructed to imagine that the following week would be great, felt significantly less motivated and energetic (and were academically less productive) than those who were told to visualise all the problems that might take place during the coming week.

It seems that in difficult times, optimism can actually disarm and relax us, preventing actions that could bring about that sunny imagined future. However, while it seems there is a case that optimism does not always live up to its promise, disappointment hardly seems a suitable candidate for delivering positive outcomes.

The job of disappointment

Countering this, early 20th-century psychologist Wilfred Bion argued that it is precisely through disappointment, rather than optimism, that meaningful thought emerges. This is because being thwarted forces us to engage with reality in a way that optimism does not. Rather than dismissing disappointment as a setback, Bion saw it as an opportunity—albeit an uncomfortable one—to reflect and reconsider.

Take the challenge a brand can face when it changes its rewards programme, making it harder for customers to earn points. Loyal customers who have built a relationship with the brand based on predictability and perceived fairness may well feel let down. This creates a moment of disappointment, forcing customers to think about whether to continue spending their money with the brand or abandon it. Either way, consumers are now reflecting on their relationship with the brand in a way that, in a steady-state environment, they had no incentive to do so.

Of course, it is hardly in a brand manager’s textbook that disappointing customers is a solid strategy, but it is also fair to say that it is through this disappointment we can see the depth of people's expectations of the brand: if we did not care, and the loyalty programme was not of interest in the first place, then we would not feel frustrated, and we would not see the same intensity of disappointment. So, if a brand manager finds they have disappointed customers, then this means the brand’s actions matter; disappointment can therefore be a signal of value or importance.

Responding to disappointment

Of course we cannot always hope to meet the expectations of all the people in our lives - a brand cannot service all its customers without falling short, and a government cannot make all the people happy all the time. Anticipating and bracing for disappointment is simply something we do as humans. As W. B. Yeats famously suggested, life is a long preparation for something that never happens.

Because disappointment is inevitable then it might be less important whether we create disappointment than how we respond to it or the possibility of it. Bion considers that what is needed is (using a concept he borrows) 'Negative Capability' - the ability to tolerate disappointment without rushing to a resolution. Those who lack Negative Capability feel compelled to find an immediate explanation, blame someone, or use some other means to escape the discomfort of disappointment.

So if a brand disappoints a customer, the customer services team are often tempted to rush to an immediate resolution. However, if they rationalise what has happened or defends itself too quickly, there is a danger that customers feel the issue has not been considered enough, or responded to in a sufficiently thoughtful way.

A brand that is able to successfully 'hold space' for disappointment, acknowledging it without rushing to solutions, may, at first glance, seem to be failing to correct failure quickly enough. However, Bion would suggest that this approach can in fact foster deeper trust by demonstrating a genuine commitment to understanding concerns before offering a meaningful response. It is this 'Negative Capability' that perhaps explains why some brands navigate disappointment successfully while others struggle, determining whether consumers remain engaged or disengage in anger.

In another example, politicians' ability to hold the space for disappointment could be why some are able to navigate difficult events, such as when UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer faced significant disappointment over accepting gifts and hospitality, including clothing, event tickets, and accommodations. In response, rather than seeking to blame others or angrily deny it, Starmer took a number of steps, first repaying more than £6,000 in gifts. He then put in place stricter internal guidelines to address the problem more widely, announcing that senior ministers would no longer accept free clothing.

Starmer was displaying what Bion calls a 'container' strategy for executing Negative Capability well. He considers that ‘containing’ - carefully acknowledging the issue and taking time to determine the right corrective measures - helps transform disappointment into something that can be thought about, rather than 'evacuated' through denial, rage, or blaming others.

Although undoubtedly damaging, this containment appeared to help control the disappointment and maintain public engagement. Through this there is a possibility of transforming disappointment into long-term positive outcomes.

Seeking out disappointment

It seems then that disappointment can in fact lead to a deeper engagement with the issue, which is no bad thing. This is the underpinning of health psychologist Fuschia Sirois's research on ‘defensive pessimism’. She suggests that individuals who anticipate potential challenges by considering possible negative outcomes are better equipped to handle setbacks. This is because we are more likely to be motivated to proactively prepare to prevent those outcomes occurring. For example, defensive pessimists might prepare thoroughly for a job interview by considering what could go wrong and taking steps to mitigate those risks.

German academic and psychologist Gabriele Oettingen goes one step further, arguing for mental contrasting, a strategy that encourages us to actively seek out disappointment by requiring us to consider both our aspirations and the obstacles that stand in their way. Oettingen suggests this means we can develop resilience, improve our planning, transforming disappointment into a tool for growth rather than a barrier to progress. Indeed, mental contrasting has been shown to help people improve their relationships and recover from chronic pain, possibly because it undercuts the complacency that can be the result of unrealistic optimism.

What matters then is not so much whether a person feels hopeful or unhopeful about the future but how constructively they deal with the feelings of disappointment about the possibility of poor outcomes.

The political nature of disappointment

Climate change is one area which people have good reason to feel disappointment in the futures they are facing. However, in the vein of its how we deal with this that is important, a survey of more than 2,000 U.S. adults found that people experiencing psychological distress related to climate change were more likely to engage in collective climate change action or to report a willingness to do so. And other research has found a positive correlation between climate anxiety and climate action.

While anxiety or distress are not exactly the same as disappointment, it does seem close enough to consider this an important avenue for climate campaigners and those seeking change in other areas to engage with.

Disappointment therefore has wider implications because it is not simply a personal response, but arises in reaction to unmet expectations that are often shaped by social systems, institutions, and cultural narratives. Added to this is that disappoinment happens when we compare what actually happened (or is likely to happen) to what we expected or hoped for—especially when we believe a better outcome could have occurred. Unlike regret, which arises when we feel personally responsible for a bad outcome, disappointment tends to involve less self-blame and more focus on external factors. This focus on external factors and possible futures means disappointment is often deeply political.

Added to this, as philosopher Rafael Holmberg suggests, disappointment is never just an isolated feeling; it is open-ended, with the potential to linger rather than resolve. This endurance makes it particularly potent in political discourse, calling on actors to step in and address the issues through containment. All too often it seems this does not happen, resulting in blame, anger and displacement, thereby further aggravating the issue.

Andreas Reckwitz expands on this idea, arguing that modern society itself functions as a disappointment generator. We are conditioned to strive for uniqueness and exceptionalism, yet this very pursuit sets many up most of us for failure. When everyone is trying to stand out, the reality is that most will not, fuelling feelings of frustration, and societal discontent.

Conclusions

A key reason disappointment feels so powerful is counterfactual thinking, our tendency to imagine "what if" or "if only" scenarios. This means that even if the better outcome wasn't guaranteed, just thinking about how things could have been different can intensify our disappointment. We can see how this is aligned with societal challenges, for example, the notion of sostalgia, where we are nostalgic for a life that is no longer possible due to climate change.

We do not like disappointments, and yet it seems that they offer us a path forward, allowing us to see possibilities for change and to determine what we want more clearly. It it is this that makes disappointment politically significant. Its open-ended nature does not merely signal failure but instead demands a response. Far from being a purely negative emotion, disappointment, when engaged with constructively, can lead to deeper insight, more thoughtful action, and, ultimately, meaningful change.